Travel Insider: When to Book Airfare Early

Saving money when booking airfare is a priority, and our guide will make it easier to determine when to book airfare early. While timing can feel tricky—like navigating the stock market—understanding how airlines price tickets empowers you to make informed, lower-stress decisions. Booking airfare early not only helps you avoid the frustrating “only a few seats left” situation, where prices spike, but it also opens up more options for flights and seats. Ready to arm yourself with the knowledge to use to your advantage? Let’s dive in.

A little about us — Our insights come from years of experience in the commercial airline industry. We hope our travel tips and insider knowledge make your travel planning easier, helping you enjoy more effortless trips.

Disclaimer: Some of the links in this post, like booking links, are affiliate links, meaning at no additional cost to you, we make a little bit of money if you click through and end up booking. That said, we would never recommend something we don’t stand behind 100%. 

How Airlines Price Flights

Let’s understand the airline industry’s pricing theory before guiding you on when to book airfare early.

Airline Pricing Strategy

Airlines don’t just set one price for a flight and stick with it. Each flight, date, fare class, and time brings unique demand. The goal for airlines is to get the most possible revenue from each flight. They don’t want to sell out too early, missing out on late-booking travelers willing to pay premium prices, like business travelers or those booking last-minute trips.

Quick definition alignment — When we say “demand”, this means “people wanting a seat on that flight”.

Flights are sold over what’s called a “booking curve,” where prices are adjusted from the time tickets go on sale until the actual departure. Throughout this period, airlines carefully balance early bookings and higher last-minute fares. If they sell too fast, they lose the high-revenue travelers. But if they hold seats for too long, they risk flying with empty ones. Airlines also adjust prices based on competition with other carriers, but this factor can be hard to predict.

The practice of setting and optimizing prices within airlines is called Revenue Management. Each airline has teams of analysts assigned tasks related to this practice, with various tools, predictors, and models assisting them in their work. Behind the scenes, airlines also manage fare classes and file their fares for domestic flights with the DOT.

Key Factors in Airline Pricing

• High-Demand Periods: Flights during peak travel times like holidays, summer, or school breaks are priced higher due to demand. In general, if airlines see that more people are buying tickets than expected, prices go up to capitalize on the demand, and vice versa.
• Low-Demand Periods: During off-peak seasons, airlines might test higher prices but lower them later if seats aren’t selling. As the flight fills up, fewer seats are available, which can lead to higher prices.
• Competition: Airlines might lower prices to capture passengers from competitors, but this can happen unpredictably as it relates to airline strategy more than revenue management. They may similarly lower fares to price match another airline during a sale or promotion.

What is Considered “Early” for Airfare Purchases?

Understanding when to book airfare early depends on whether you’re taking a short-haul or long-haul flight. Here’s how to think about each.

Short-Haul Flights (Domestic)

For shorter domestic flights (e.g., Dallas to Nashville), we recommend booking 1-2 months in advance to secure a reasonable fare. Booking 3+ months ahead is considered early but isn’t always necessary for these flights.

• Expedia‘s 2024 Travel Hacks Report recommends booking domestic flights around 28 days before departure, with savings of up to 24% compared to last-minute bookings.
• The Points Guy suggests booking domestic flights 1-2 months before your trip for the best prices.

Related: United States destination guides – Sedona, Hilton Head Island, La Jolla

Long-Haul Flights (International)

For international or long-distance flights (e.g., NYC to Hawaii), it’s wise to book 4-6 months in advance. These flights typically have more complex pricing and higher demand, so locking in a rate sooner offers more peace of mind. Booking 6+ months ahead is considered early for these routes.

• According to Expedia’s 2024 Travel Hacks Report, international flights should ideally be booked around 60 days out (and no more than 4 months out) for optimal savings. In 2022, the sweet spot was closer to six months out.
• The Points Guy recommends booking international flights 3-5 months ahead of the trip for the best rates.

Related: International destination guides – France, Costa Rica, Cabo San Lucas

Recap: When to Buy “Early” Based on Flight Length of Haul

If you’re within the recommended booking window—1-2 months for domestic flights and 4-6 months for international—go ahead and lock in your fare. But if you’re shopping earlier than that, follow the tips below to help you decide whether to book airfare early or wait to watch prices in hopes of a better deal.

Visit our travel insider resources if you want easy and effortless travel overall.

How to Use Airline Pricing to Know When to Book Early:

1) Track Airfare Prices with Online Tools

Start shopping for flights early, but don’t feel pressured to commit right away. Price tracking tools like Google Flights, Hopper, and SkyScanner let you keep an eye on fares, giving you a heads-up when prices drop or rise. Set up alerts for your travel dates, and you’ll be in the know. It’s a low-effort way to stay on top of deals while giving you the flexibility to snag the best rate when the time feels right.

2) Book Refundable when Possible

A great reason to book early is when you find refundable airfare options. Look for fares labeled as “refundable” or “flexible,” which allow changes or cancellations without hefty fees. All US airlines offer free cancellations within 24 hours of booking (this is a regulation, and is not marketed), and certain higher fare classes come with built-in flexibility. Any flexibility you can get helps you lock in a good price early while keeping your plans flexible. We love the ease of flexible fares.

3) Consider if the Flight is “Attractive”/High-Demand

Thinking about how many other travelers could want your flight will help you judge how early to purchase your flight. Think very supply and demand on this step. The easiest example is Thanksgiving. Most people want to fly out before Thanksgiving day and come back before work on Monday. Flights with these ideal departure and arrival dates within the US would be considered high-demand flights.

When You Might Not Want to Book Airfare Early

If you’re flexible with your destination or dates, holding off on booking airfare might save you money. Airlines sometimes lower fares to stimulate demand, especially if a flight isn’t filling up as quickly as expected. If you don’t mind a bit of uncertainty, waiting could score you a better deal. However, this only works if you’re not tied to specific dates or if you’re okay with prices potentially rising.

Taking an early morning flight? See our early morning flight tips.

Summary

Booking airfare early usually reduces stress, guarantees availability, and avoids last-minute price hikes. But, if you’re flexible and traveling off-peak, waiting might be worth the gamble. Keep an eye on pricing tools to help with your decision. If you have fixed dates and/or are wanting a high-demand flight, there’s more risk than reward in waiting for fares to drop.

Happy, breezy travels.

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